This update took longer than I had first planned, but the market didn't move in a way that set up the trade so there wasn't much to report.
This is what happened since the last post:
The price didn't slide down to the trendlines, but instead went right up to somewhere around the middle of the cone-channel. Since then it has come down a little but there is still a long way to go.
I never ended up entering this trade since as I explained, the price hadn't come down as far as I wanted it to for it to be a proper bounce (obviously it didn't break through the trendline either). The price did move up for about 150 pips but I never felt like it was a proper bounce since it didn't hit either the trendline or the bottom BB and 200 SMA. But still it had crossed the 50 SMA and it was very close to the bottom trendline. Trendlines certainly isn't an exact science, so it might be ridiculous to pass on a trade when the price went down to just a few pixels above the line, but it still feels like the price could have come down further and made a "proper" bounce on all of the supports.
If you look at the chart, you can see that on the previous touch of the lower channel line, the price was close, then went up, only to come back down. The same thing might happen again, and that is why I wanted to wait for a "proper" bounce. However the price seems to be moving down slowly again and maybe it will end up "bouncing or breaking through" as was discussed in the previous post.
So all I can say for the moment is that I will wait and observe further price movement on this specific currency pair.
Do I regret not entering the trade upwards when I saw it keep on going up? Not really, you need to wait for the good ones, and the way its looking now the price seems to be coming back anyways, the result of a "bad" bounce.
I will keep you updated on this currency pair while looking out for other opportunities.
/H
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